FT · SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 28 August 2026

Al Nassr 2–1 Al TaawounMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026

Al Nassr
2–1
Al Nassr win
Al Taawoun

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Nassr to win at 72%. Bawler had Al Nassr at 72%, the draw at 18% and Al Taawoun at 11%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Nassr win
72%
Result
Draw
18%
Al Taawoun win
11%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.5 – 0.9
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 3.9
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Nassr to win
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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