FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Sunday, 11 October 2026

Al Fayha 1–1 Al RiyadhMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Fayha or draw at 69%. Bawler had Al Fayha at 41%, the draw at 27% and Al Riyadh at 31%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Fayha win
41%
Draw
27%
Result
Al Riyadh win
31%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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