FT · SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 28 August 2026

Al Fayha 3–2 AbhaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026

Al Fayha
3–2
Al Fayha win
Abha

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Fayha or draw at 68%. Bawler had Al Fayha at 38%, the draw at 30% and Abha at 32%. The match finished 3–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Fayha win
38%
Result
Draw
30%
Abha win
32%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.1
Total 2.3
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.5
From the match itself

The match produced 2.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Fayha or draw
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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