FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Al Ettifaq 2–3 Al NassrMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Al Ettifaq
2–3
Al Nassr win
Al Nassr

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Nassr to win at 68%. Bawler had Al Ettifaq at 13%, the draw at 19% and Al Nassr at 68%. The match finished 2–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ettifaq win
13%
Draw
19%
Al Nassr win
68%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 2.4
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 2.0
From the match itself

The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Nassr to win
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Nassr's away win is the high-confidence call, backed by a dominant 2.42 expected goals to Al Ettifaq's 1.01 and a 68% win probability edge."

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