FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Al Ettifaq 0–3 Al DiriyahMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Al Ettifaq
0–3
Al Diriyah win
Al Diriyah

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Diriyah or draw at 66%. Bawler had Al Ettifaq at 34%, the draw at 27% and Al Diriyah at 39%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ettifaq win
34%
Draw
27%
Al Diriyah win
39%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.0
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Ettifaq's home win carries 74% forecast probability, underpinned by a decisive 1.75 xG advantage that projects dominant attacking pressure over Al Diriyah's limited creativity."

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