FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Académico de Viseu 2–1 EstorilMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Académico de Viseu or draw at 79%. Bawler had Académico de Viseu at 55%, the draw at 24% and Estoril at 21%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Académico de Viseu win
55%
Result
Draw
24%
Estoril win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Académico de Viseu or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.