FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Abha 1–1 Al KhaleejMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Khaleej to win at 86%. Bawler had Abha at 4%, the draw at 10% and Al Khaleej at 86%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Abha win
4%
Draw
10%
Result
Al Khaleej win
86%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.6 – 3.3
Total 3.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Khaleej to win
Pre-match: 86%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Khaleej's away win looms large as Abha face a 2.62 expected-goals deficit against a side generating 3.25 xG."

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