What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
VVV-Venlo are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Vitesse have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
VVV-Venlo or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Bawler's model rates this match: VVV-Venlo are favoured (43% win probability vs 30% for Vitesse, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is VVV-Venlo 1-1 Vitesse (13.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives VVV-Venlo 43%, the draw 27% and Vitesse 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on VVV-Venlo expecting 1.48 goals and Vitesse 1.19.
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.