FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Viking FK 3–1 Dinamo ZagrebMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Viking FK at 48%, draw at 26%, Dinamo Zagreb at 27%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Viking FK.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FK win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Zagreb win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 1.20
Total 2.88
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✓ Won