FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Viking FK 3–1 Dinamo ZagrebMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Viking FK or draw at 73%. Bawler had Viking FK at 48%, the draw at 26% and Dinamo Zagreb at 27%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Viking FK win
48%
Result
Draw
26%
Dinamo Zagreb win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Viking FK or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.