What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Utebo are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
Utebo or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Bawler's model rates this match: Utebo are favoured (45% win probability vs 29% for CD Sabadell, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Utebo 1-1 CD Sabadell (12.2% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Utebo 45%, the draw 26% and CD Sabadell 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Utebo expecting 1.61 goals and CD Sabadell 1.24.
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.