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UD Castellonense vs Almería prediction — Copa del Rey · Tue 27 Oct · 18:45 UK

Copa del Rey · Tue 27 Oct · 18:45 UK
UD Castellonense 42Draw 26Almería 32
UD Castellonense or draw has not moved in a day — steady at 68%
The call
68%
UD Castellonense or draw
Calls on the result published at 60–70% have landed 69% of the time
181 of 264 settledFull record →
2.9
Goals expected
3d 01hUntil lineups lock
Goal before half-time
73%
Both teams score
59%
3+ goals
56%

What we expect

Our forecast for this match.

UD CastellonenseAlmería
1.6
Goals+0.2
1.4
UD CastellonenseAlmería
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.5
UD CastellonenseAlmería
1.1
Goals+0.2
0.9

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability1-day change
UD Castellonense to score79%0
Over 1.5 goals79%0
Almería to score74%0
Under 3.5 goals66%0

In plain English

UD Castellonense are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.

What would change the call

UD Castellonense or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

UD Castellonense lead 1–0 at half-time68% → 93%
Almería lead 1–0 at half-time68% → 35%
Goalless at half-time68% → 73%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

First half — what we expect

UD Castellonense
50%
to score before half-time
Almería
45%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%

Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.2 / match
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Common questions

Who will win UD Castellonense vs Almería?

Bawler's model rates this match: UD Castellonense are favoured (42% win probability vs 32% for Almería, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for UD Castellonense vs Almería?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is UD Castellonense 1-1 Almería (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.

How does Bawler predict UD Castellonense vs Almería?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives UD Castellonense 42%, the draw 26% and Almería 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in UD Castellonense vs Almería?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on UD Castellonense expecting 1.58 goals and Almería 1.35.

Over or under 2.5 goals in UD Castellonense vs Almería?

Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.