FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Tromso 0–0 Brighton & Hove AlbionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Tromso at 18%, draw at 22%, Brighton & Hove Albion at 61%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Brighton & Hove Albion to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Tromso win
18%
Draw
22%
Actual ✓
Albion win
61%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.05 – 2.08
Total 3.13
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won