Sporting Hortaleza 1–0 Atlético Unión GüímarMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

1–0

Sporting Hortaleza win

Atlético Unión Güímar

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting Hortaleza at 45%, draw at 26%, Atlético Unión Güímar at 30%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Sporting Hortaleza.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Hortaleza win

45%

Actual ✓

Draw

26%

Güímar win

30%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.65 – 1.32

Total 2.97

Actual

1 – 0

Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 80% forecast after Sporting Hortaleza's 1.65 expected goals signal attacking intent at home against a visiting side projected for just 1.32."

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