FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Sporting de Alcázar 0–3 MálagaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Málaga or draw at 71%. Bawler had Sporting de Alcázar at 29%, the draw at 27% and Málaga at 44%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting de Alcázar win
29%
Draw
27%
Málaga win
44%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sporting de Alcázar's home-win forecast rests on a commanding 1.82 expected-goals advantage, translating to 76% win probability against a Málaga side projected for just 0.75 xG."