FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Slovan Bratislava 1–1 NK CeljeMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Slovan Bratislava or draw at 67%. Bawler had Slovan Bratislava at 40%, the draw at 27% and NK Celje at 33%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Slovan Bratislava win
40%
Draw
27%
Result
NK Celje win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.