FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Slovan Bratislava 1–1 NK CeljeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Slovan Bratislava at 40%, draw at 27%, NK Celje at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Slovan Bratislava to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bratislava win
40%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Celje win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.27
Total 2.71
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won