FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Sint-Truidense 4–0 RAAL La LouvièreMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sint-Truidense at 58%, draw at 24%, RAAL La Louvière at 19%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Sint-Truidense.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sint-Truidense win
58%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Louvière win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.89 – 0.99
Total 2.88
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Sint-Truidense's 0.90 expected-goals advantage and 58% win probability make the 1X forecast (81% confidence) the model's leading call for home advantage or stalemate."