FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Sint-Truidense 1–0 Omonia NicosiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sint-Truidense at 43%, draw at 27%, Omonia Nicosia at 31%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Sint-Truidense.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sint-Truidense win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Nicosia win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.25
Total 2.77
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost