FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 20 September 2026

Sint-Truidense 0–2 KVC WesterloMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026

Sint-Truidense
0–2
KVC Westerlo win
KVC Westerlo
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Sint-Truidense at 60%, draw at 20%, KVC Westerlo at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Sint-Truidense to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Sint-Truidense win
60%
Draw
20%
Westerlo win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.34 – 1.30
Total 3.64
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 60%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Sint-Truidense's 0.74 expected-goals advantage underpins an 85% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, making a multi-goal outcome the model's clearest edge in this matchup."

> More from Bawler