FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Sint-Truidense 2–0 Iberia 1999Match recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sint-Truidense or draw at 78%. Bawler had Sint-Truidense at 56%, the draw at 22% and Iberia 1999 at 22%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sint-Truidense win
56%
Result
Draw
22%
Iberia 1999 win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.2
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.