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Bawler / Seychelles vs Sri Lanka / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Seychelles 0–3 Sri LankaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Seychelles
0–3
Sri Lanka win
Sri Lanka
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Seychelles at 29%, draw at 23%, Sri Lanka at 48%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Sri Lanka.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Seychelles win
29%
Draw
23%
Lanka win
48%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.99
Total 3.51
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 87% confidence, driven by Sri Lanka's 0.46 xG advantage and combined expected output of 3.54 goals."

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