FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Red Star Belgrade 3–0 Viktoria PlzenMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Red Star Belgrade
3–0
Red Star Belgrade win
Viktoria Plzen

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Red Star Belgrade or draw at 72%. Bawler had Red Star Belgrade at 43%, the draw at 29% and Viktoria Plzen at 28%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Red Star Belgrade win
43%
Result
Draw
29%
Viktoria Plzen win
28%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.4
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.4.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Red Star Belgrade or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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