FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Red Star Belgrade 30 Viktoria PlzenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Red Star Belgrade
30
Red Star Belgrade win
Viktoria Plzen
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Red Star Belgrade at 43%, draw at 29%, Viktoria Plzen at 28%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Red Star Belgrade.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Belgrade win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Plzen win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.371.07
Total 2.44
Actual
30
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost

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