FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Real Betis 2–5 BarcelonaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Barcelona or draw at 76%. Bawler had Real Betis at 24%, the draw at 22% and Barcelona at 54%. The match finished 2–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Betis win
24%
Draw
22%
Barcelona win
54%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 2.1
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 5
Total 7 (+3.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 3.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
Barcelona to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.