The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet. Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Bawler's model rates this match: Purmersteijn are favoured (43% win probability vs 30% for Gemert, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Purmersteijn 1-1 Gemert (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Purmersteijn 43%, the draw 26% and Gemert 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Purmersteijn expecting 1.58 goals and Gemert 1.29.
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.