Portugal 0–1 SpainMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 06 July 2026

Portugal

0–1

Spain win

Spain

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Portugal at 34%, draw at 31%, Spain at 35%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Spain.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Portugal win

34%

Draw

31%

Spain win

35%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.42 – 1.44

Total 2.86

Actual

0 – 1

Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 69%

✗ Lost

Value

Pre-match: 53%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.74x

Over 1.5 Goals✗
Under 10.5 Corners✓
Lamine Yamal 3+ Shots✓
1X✗

> What we said pre-match

"Over 2.5 Goals lands at 73% because Portugal's 1.45 xG and Spain's 1.33 xG combine for a high-variance total that leans toward a multi-goal affair, even with win odds nearly split three ways."

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