What we expect
Our forecast for this match.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Poblense are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Ceuta. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Poblense to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Poblense vs Ceuta?
Bawler's model rates this match: Poblense are favoured (63% win probability vs 16% for Ceuta, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Poblense vs Ceuta?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Poblense 2-1 Ceuta (9.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Poblense vs Ceuta?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Poblense 63%, the draw 21% and Ceuta 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Poblense vs Ceuta?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Poblense expecting 2.17 goals and Ceuta 1.03.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Poblense vs Ceuta?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.