FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
NK Celje 1–2 Slovan BratislavaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had NK Celje at 59%, draw at 23%, Slovan Bratislava at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was NK Celje to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Celje win
59%
Draw
23%
Bratislava win
18%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.97 – 1.02
Total 2.99
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost