What we expect
In plain English
Mauritius are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Djibouti. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Mauritius to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Mauritius vs Djibouti?
Bawler's model rates this match: Mauritius are favoured (63% win probability vs 16% for Djibouti, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Mauritius vs Djibouti?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Mauritius 2-0 Djibouti (10.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.09.
How does Bawler predict Mauritius vs Djibouti?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Mauritius 63%, the draw 21% and Djibouti 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Mauritius vs Djibouti?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.11 and away expected goals 0.98.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Mauritius vs Djibouti?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.09. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).