FT · Spain: La Liga · Friday, 09 October 2026
Málaga 1–1 EspanyolMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Málaga or draw at 65%. Bawler had Málaga at 37%, the draw at 28% and Espanyol at 35%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Málaga win
37%
Draw
28%
Result
Espanyol win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.