FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Lillestrom 2–1 EgnatiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lillestrom at 49%, draw at 24%, Egnatia at 28%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Lillestrom.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lillestrom win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Egnatia win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.88 – 1.37
Total 3.25
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Lillestrom's 0.50 expected-goals advantage and Jonathan David's 28% of team creation power underpins the model's 84% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals in this Europa League qualifier."