FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
LASK Linz 5–1 CelticMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had LASK Linz at 32%, draw at 26%, Celtic at 43%. Against expectation, the match finished 5-1. The model's headline call was Celtic to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Linz win
32%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Celtic win
43%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.61
Total 2.97
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+3.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost