FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
LASK Linz 5–1 CelticMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Celtic or draw at 68%. Bawler had LASK Linz at 32%, the draw at 26% and Celtic at 43%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
LASK Linz win
32%
Result
Draw
26%
Celtic win
43%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.