FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
KuPS Kuopio 2–4 TrabzonsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Trabzonspor or draw at 71%. Bawler had KuPS Kuopio at 29%, the draw at 28% and Trabzonspor at 43%. The match finished 2–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
KuPS Kuopio win
29%
Draw
28%
Trabzonspor win
43%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 3.5
From the match itself
The match produced 3.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.