FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Kasimpasa 4–1 SamsunsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Kasimpasa or draw at 66%. Bawler had Kasimpasa at 37%, the draw at 29% and Samsunspor at 35%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Kasimpasa win
37%
Result
Draw
29%
Samsunspor win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.5
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.