Team stats
What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
Match odds
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
NAC Breda are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
NAC Breda or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda?
Bawler's model rates this match: NAC Breda are favoured (42% win probability vs 30% for JOS Watergraafsmeer, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is JOS Watergraafsmeer 1-1 NAC Breda (13.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives JOS Watergraafsmeer 30%, the draw 28% and NAC Breda 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on JOS Watergraafsmeer expecting 1.16 goals and NAC Breda 1.40.
Over or under 2.5 goals in JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 47%.