FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Ivory Coast 0–1 CameroonMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Ivory Coast
0–1
Cameroon win
Cameroon

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Ivory Coast to win at 68%. Bawler had Ivory Coast at 68%, the draw at 22% and Cameroon at 10%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Ivory Coast win
68%
Draw
22%
Cameroon win
10%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 0.6
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Ivory Coast to win
Pre-match: 68%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Ivory Coast's home win is the model's 69% call, built on a dominant 1.33 xG advantage with striker Sébastien Haller accounting for nearly a quarter of their attacking output."

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