Inter D'Escaldes 0–0 Drita GjilanMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026

0–0

Draw

Drita Gjilan

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Inter D'Escaldes at 19%, draw at 19%, Drita Gjilan at 61%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Drita Gjilan to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

D'Escaldes win

19%

Draw

19%

Actual ✓

Gjilan win

61%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.38 – 2.51

Total 3.89

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-3.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 3.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Away Win

Pre-match: 61%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 54%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Drita Gjilan's away win is the high-confidence call at 61% probability, built on a dominant 1.12 xG advantage and Lautaro Martínez's presence unable to close the gap for the hosts."

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