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Gibraltar vs Malta prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK
26Gibraltar win27Draw48Malta win
The call
74%
Malta or draw
Calls like this land 67% of the time
152 of 227 settledFull record →
14d 18hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
1–1
13% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
1.1v1.6
2.6 in total
Both teams score
52%
Leans yes
3+ goals
49%
Leans unlikely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

GibraltarGibraltarMaltaMalta
1.1Goals1.6
usually 1.8usually 1.5
7.5Shots14.7
usually 4.5usually 12.3
2.3On target5.4
usually 1.2usually 5.7
3.0Corners5.5
usually 1.8usually 4.5
GibraltarGibraltarMaltaMalta
0.5Goals0.7
3.4Shots6.7
usually 2.3usually 5.8
1.0On target2.4
usually 0.7usually 2.8
1.4Corners2.6
usually 0.8usually 1.8
GibraltarGibraltarMaltaMalta
0.6Goals0.9
4.1Shots8.0
1.3On target3.0
1.6Corners2.9

More chances

Malta to score79%
2 or more goals74%
3 goals or fewer73%
Goal before half-time69%
Gibraltar to score66%

Gibraltar · last 6

Wat Liechtenstein2–010/05
Dat Malta1–19 shots
Dv Andorra0–05 shots
Dv Sao Tome and Principe0–009/23
Wv Cayman Islands4–106/06
Wv British Virgin Islands4–006/03

Malta · last 6

Wv Andorra1–012 shots
Dv Gibraltar1–117 shots
Wv Liechtenstein2–009/27
Wat Andorra2–113 shots
Wv Azerbaijan2–006/05
Lat Slovakia1–206/01

Head to head

Oct 2026Malta 1–1 Gibraltar
Sept 2023Malta 1–0 Gibraltar
Oct 2020Malta 2–0 Gibraltar
Jun 2014Gibraltar 1–0 Malta

First half — what we expect

Gibraltar
38%
to score before half-time
Malta
50%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

GibraltarGibraltarMaltaMalta
17%6+ shots61%
<10%8+ shots36%
60%1+ shots on target88%
11%3+ shots on target42%
39%2+ corners68%
<10%4+ corners27%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Malta or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Gibraltar lead 1–0 at half-time39%
Malta lead 1–0 at half-time95%
Goalless at half-time78%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

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Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Gibraltar form →Malta form →

Common questions

Who will win Gibraltar vs Malta?

Bawler's model rates this match: Malta are favoured (48% win probability vs 26% for Gibraltar, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Gibraltar vs Malta?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Gibraltar 1-1 Malta (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.6.

How does Bawler predict Gibraltar vs Malta?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Gibraltar 26%, the draw 27% and Malta 48%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Gibraltar vs Malta?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Gibraltar expecting 1.08 goals and Malta 1.56.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Gibraltar vs Malta?

Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 49%.