FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Friday, 09 October 2026
Galatasaray 3–1 KasimpasaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Galatasaray to win at 72%. Bawler had Galatasaray at 72%, the draw at 18% and Kasimpasa at 10%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Galatasaray win
72%
Result
Draw
18%
Kasimpasa win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.8
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Galatasaray to win
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.