FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Galatasaray 1–4 BarcelonaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Barcelona or draw at 79%. Bawler had Galatasaray at 21%, the draw at 20% and Barcelona at 59%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Galatasaray win
21%
Draw
20%
Barcelona win
59%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 2.4
Total 3.8
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 2.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 90%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Galatasaray to win
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.