FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Fulham 1–0 Hull CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fulham to win at 68%. Bawler had Fulham at 68%, the draw at 20% and Hull City at 13%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
68%
Result
Draw
20%
Hull City win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.9
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Fulham to win
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.