FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 11 October 2026
FC Cologne 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cologne or draw at 68%. Bawler had FC Cologne at 44%, the draw at 24% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 32%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cologne win
44%
Result
Draw
24%
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.