Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFalkirk on top, with Jacob Murrell our likeliest to test the keeper.
Falkirk v St Johnstone prediction
Falkirk are favourites on our numbers: 53% to win, against 22% for St Johnstone and 25% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Falkirk 1–0 St Johnstone, the most likely Falkirk win (10%). Falkirk are expected to score 1.8 goals and St Johnstone 1.1, 2.8 between them. Both teams scoring is 54% and three or more goals is 54%.
Jacob Murrell is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.6 shots and 1.2 on target for Falkirk, if they start. For cards, Coll Donaldson (Falkirk) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. Falkirk come in with four wins, one draw and one defeat in their last six. St Johnstone have two wins, three draws and one defeat over the same run.
Of their last three meetings on our records, Falkirk have won none, St Johnstone two, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished St. Johnstone 1–1 Falkirk, in Sept 2026. On shots, our forecast is 15.9 for Falkirk and 11.2 for St Johnstone, with 4.5 and 3.5 on target, and corners at 6.0 to 4.0. So we expect Falkirk to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick for this game is Falkirk or Draw, Falkirk Over 11.5 Shots and Jacob Murrell 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 48% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.10).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Falkirk · last 6
St Johnstone · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Falkirk or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win Falkirk vs St Johnstone?
Bawler's model rates this match: Falkirk are favoured (53% win probability vs 22% for St Johnstone, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Falkirk vs St Johnstone?
Bawler's predicted score is Falkirk 1-0 St Johnstone: the most likely score if Falkirk win, which is the likeliest result (53%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.3%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Falkirk vs St Johnstone?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Falkirk 53%, the draw 25% and St Johnstone 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Falkirk vs St Johnstone?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Falkirk expecting 1.76 goals and St Johnstone 1.07.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Falkirk vs St Johnstone?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.
When are the Falkirk v St Johnstone line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Falkirk v St Johnstone?
Falkirk or Draw (78%), Falkirk Over 11.5 Shots (80%), Jacob Murrell 1+ Shot on Target (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.10). 18+, please gamble responsibly.