FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Eyupspor 2–1 AlanyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Eyupspor at 39%, draw at 29%, Alanyaspor at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Eyupspor.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Eyupspor win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Alanyaspor win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.14
Total 2.43
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost