FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Espanyol 3–0 LevanteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Espanyol at 47%, draw at 29%, Levante at 24%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Espanyol.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Levante win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.76 – 1.17
Total 2.93
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
BTTS No
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Levante's fight for survival against a settled Espanyol side with no stakes creates asymmetry the model exploits: 1X (78% forecast) reflects home advantage and a 0.60 xG edge."