FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Dundee United 1–0 HibernianMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Hibernian or draw at 68%. Bawler had Dundee United at 32%, the draw at 26% and Hibernian at 42%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Dundee United win
32%
Result
Draw
26%
Hibernian win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.