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Bawler / Dominica vs Anguilla / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 21 September 2026

Dominica 1–0 AnguillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 21 September 2026

Dominica
1–0
Dominica win
Anguilla
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Dominica at 47%, draw at 26%, Anguilla at 27%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Dominica.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Dominica win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Anguilla win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.59 – 1.14
Total 2.73
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Dominica's 0.45 expected-goals edge and home advantage fuel a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 76%, with both sides generating enough attacking threat to breach the two-goal threshold."

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