FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 Viking FKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Dinamo Zagreb at 72%, draw at 18%, Viking FK at 10%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Dinamo Zagreb to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Zagreb win
72%
Draw
18%
Actual ✓
FK win
10%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.32 – 0.77
Total 3.08
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 90%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won