FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 Viking FKMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Dinamo Zagreb to win at 72%. Bawler had Dinamo Zagreb at 72%, the draw at 18% and Viking FK at 10%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Dinamo Zagreb win
72%
Draw
18%
Result
Viking FK win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.8
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Dinamo Zagreb or draw
Pre-match: 90%
Landed
Outside shot
Viking FK or draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.