What we expect
Our forecast for this match.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Covadonga are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Covadonga or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Covadonga vs Real Valladolid?
Bawler's model rates this match: Covadonga are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Real Valladolid, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Covadonga vs Real Valladolid?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Covadonga 1-1 Real Valladolid (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Covadonga vs Real Valladolid?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Covadonga 46%, the draw 25% and Real Valladolid 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Covadonga vs Real Valladolid?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Covadonga expecting 1.68 goals and Real Valladolid 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Covadonga vs Real Valladolid?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.