FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Çorum FK 3–0 EyupsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Çorum FK at 51%, draw at 26%, Eyupspor at 23%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Çorum FK.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FK win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Eyupspor win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.03
Total 2.68
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Çorum FK's 0.63 expected-goals edge and 51% win probability make 1X (draw or home win) the model's 77% call, reflecting their attacking dominance in a low-scoring contest."