What we expect
Our forecast for this match.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first.
In plain English
Conquense are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Castellón, and Castellón have won two of the last three between them. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Conquense to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Conquense vs Castellón?
Bawler's model rates this match: Conquense are favoured (72% win probability vs 11% for Castellón, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Conquense vs Castellón?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Conquense 2-0 Castellón (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Conquense vs Castellón?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Conquense 72%, the draw 18% and Castellón 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Conquense vs Castellón?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Conquense expecting 2.44 goals and Castellón 0.85.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Conquense vs Castellón?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 64%.