Colombia 1–0 GhanaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 04 July 2026

Colombia

1–0

Colombia win

Ghana

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Colombia at 49%, draw at 30%, Ghana at 21%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Colombia.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Colombia win

49%

Actual ✓

Draw

30%

Ghana win

21%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.67 – 1.03

Total 2.70

Actual

1 – 0

Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 77%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.48x

Over 1.5 Goals✗
Luis Díaz 1+ Shot on Target✓
Under 10.5 Corners✓
1X✓

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 77% probability because Colombia's 1.67 xG advantage and Luis Díaz's 22% of team creation edge Ghana's 1.03 xG by 0.64—a decisive gap on a small expected-goal total."

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